This is a Coup-Redux

Given the elections of June 2015, the government is no longer a “first time left” one; after its reelection this is a government for a second, new term. According to the chosen narrative of the SYRIZA/ANEL coalition, it was the clumsy strategy of its former FinMin, Yanis Varufakis which led to the shambles of the latest, irrational and non viable, agreement between Greece and the Eurozone. This time, Varoufakis is no longer there, but it seems that the government is ready to renew all the previous mistakes. And this time, the prime minister will be the only one responsible.

In a recent interview for the show Conflict Zone of Deutche Welle, the minister of state, N.Pappas shared some interesting, if depressing, truths. The interview was nothing to be proud off and this time it was the interviewer who was the most shameful participant. It is indeed tiresome to watch but Mr. Pappas seems to accept a sad truth; this government has managed to vote, through the parliament, laws and measures that even the most liberal government would have been unable to pass.

After the latest Eurogroup, the Greek government launched a “success story” propaganda campaign which brings back bad memories to the Greek public. According to the SYRIZA/Anel government, it was the Greek side which had to propose the application of an automatic cut mechanism (in public expenditure-should the fiscal goals not be reached) as a defense to the IMF demands for € 3,7 bn measures, should the program fail (it positively will). It's worth remembering that the Greek proposal was already accepted as a basis for an agreement since last May.  Only, before the celebrations died down, came the Juncker ultimatum, which lead to the Greek referendum. Greece is now finding itself in a position where it has accepted all the additional measures. The only “achievement” is that it has persuaded the European creditors that these new measures and cuts do not necessarily have to be voted by the Greek parliament thus eliminating the danger of a rejection. Moreover, the Eurogroup spoke of a new de-nationalization program, immediate measures worth €5.8bn, and the immediate application of the cutting mechanism. All these measures are expected to be voted in the Greek parliament by May 24. In exchange, all the Greek government got were vague promises for a re-profiling of the debt “should this be found necessary”, “in the long run”.

E.Tsakalotos and J.Djisselbloem might have talked more concretely about the possibility of a plan which would relieve Greece in three different stages but no such think has been put in the final statement of the Eurogroup. Yet it was the same E.Tsakalotos who, about a year ago, spoke of the mistake that Y.Varoufakis had made in introducing the so called “creative vagueness” in the talks with Greece's creditors. Then, as now, it was proven that the vagueness concerned only the help that Greece would receive from its partners while its obligations in painful measures and austerity were crystal clear. In a much discussed interview to A.Papahelas, the then FinMin Varoufakis explained how the EuroWorkingGroup failed to honour each and every agreement that had been made after the Eurogroup of February 20, 2015. It is worth remembering that at that Eurogroup, the IMF had no official stance. According to Varoufakis, this was because it would not accept the list of measures that had already been agreed between the European partners against the crisis. Unfortunately exactly the same happened in the most recent Eurogroup.

My information, and they come from a reliable source, is that in the latest teleconference, the IMF rejected the agreement once again. The exact words used to describe the situation were that, between the IMF and the EU,” there is a huge distance”. This is the obvious reason why there was no official statement from the IMF after the Monday meeting.

These days, the minιster of state, N.Pappas is visiting the USA. In fact, on Thursday, he met with the American FinMin Jack Lew. The Greek government is trying to get the US to put pressure on the IMF in order to step back on its demands. It seems, however that the US has accepted that Greece belongs to the German sphere of influence. Besides that, it is certain that some form of development is brewing as I was informed that the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) had an appointment with Y.Varoufakis in the White House just a few days before the arrival of N.Pappas.

A year ago, we agreed to even further austerity measures without having secured the moneys for the bailout program, this led to a failure to pay a payment due to the IMF on June 1st. That failure fed the escalation towards the catastrophic negotiations of July 12. Now, similar omens appear over an agreement which seems remarkably like the last one. Once again we promised to take new measures, once again the IMF is expressing its doubts, once again we are not certain that our commitments will bring funds and a debt relief. The difference is that this time there is no Varoufakis to be blamed.

This time, if the measures lead to a humanitarian crisis, if no worthy returns occur for Greece, it will only be the prime minister who will be left to take the blame.